Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and caused disorder, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the political, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an highly split population where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in universities but very few government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the basics. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer supports unity or the existing arrangement. Both writes two essays that strive for neutrality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and societal data, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates cover national emblems, duties, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," said O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate report they prefer unification but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent official who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will ultimately not succeed but each side has possesses important lessons to gain from the opposing arguments."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the debate, urged the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
