Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: hopeful statements are released from different nations. Immense energy is expended on containing specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from enemy soil, a capacity provided through timely intelligence. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to intercept incoming cruise missiles roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by European allies.
Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: multiple launches fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably provided by allied countries. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly transforms into grim resignation: possibly the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from ruin and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon fired at a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly imported technology. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its objective.
Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: seven people killed, destruction and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a dependence that regional partners are clearly incapable to substitute in the near term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The comprehensive proposal from Washington generated strong feelings, controversy and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from US leadership unfolds according to the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, undoubtedly, persist.
Tactical Assessments
It is convenient to criticize specific actors of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington functions according to a assumption familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House presumes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to abandon the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.
The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the coming year.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing people and territory but avoiding a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its benefit.
Current Realities
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: personal goals to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not switch to internal issues. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a only one week to eliminate the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate certain reluctance to modify developments, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, mainly require continued Western support.
